Candidate dossier / — · Montarville

Where

The challenger

QLPQuebec Liberal Party

Lucie Gagnon

Montarville

16.7points behind the leader

CAQCoalition avenir Québec

INCUMBENT

Nathalie RoyMontarville

41.1 %

Nathalie RoyCoalition avenir Québec · IncumbentCAQ since 2012

The climb · 2018

CAQNathalie Roy

QLPLucie Gagnon

PQDaniel Michelin

QSMarie-Christine Veilleux

PCQEvans Henry

CQIsadora Lamouche

PVQJeanne Dufour

Gap at the last election16.7 points

Retrospective reconstruction. The 2017 map was used in 2018 and 2022. H2 (2014) excluded: map change not reviewed. No biography inferred.

Nomination status: Confirmed historical candidacy

A gap measured at the last election, not a prediction.

Reason : Below ranking threshold

The arithmetic behind the assignment

H1 · 2018 · Montarville

Party at the previous election : 24.4 %

Strongest opponent at that election : 41.1 %

42,252 valid votes · Verified comparable territory

Inspect all votes and the denominator

Nathalie Roy · CAQ17,368 votes
Ludovic Grisé Farand · QLP10,298 votes
Daniel Michelin · PQ6,820 votes
Caroline Charette · QS6,716 votes
Lise Roy · NPDQ836 votes
Jean Dury · BP214 votes

Sum of candidate votes = 42,252 / 42,252 valid votes

The calculation

41.1 % − 24.4 % = 16.7 points

Calculated using unrounded values; displayed to one decimal.

The person behind the assignment

Why run here?

No interview published.

Retrospective reconstruction

Outcome

Sources and supporting evidence (4)

Élections Québec ↗Official file retained with SHA-256 checksum and schema validation.September 6, 2026 · SHA-256 66a4410f46b2c664
Élections Québec ↗Official 2022 candidacies; incumbent indicator used for pre-election context.September 6, 2026 · SHA-256 488057227cc47565
Élections Québec ↗Official map history: twelve territories retained in 2026; 2017 map used in 2018 and 2022.September 6, 2026 · SHA-256 6b23cd706bd2ca87
Élections Québec ↗Official file retained with SHA-256 checksum and schema validation.September 6, 2026 · SHA-256 ff268ada6bee3c51

Another dossier awaits.

No.The challengerThe incumbent / opponentGap at the last electionSave this dossier

Louis-Charles Fortier

PCQConservative Party of Quebec

Jacques-Cartier

The incumbent / opponentGregory KelleyQuebec Liberal Party

69.2 pts

Chantal Beauregard

PQParti Québécois

Jacques-Cartier

The incumbent / opponentGregory KelleyQuebec Liberal Party

69.0 pts

← Back to the ranking

Candidate dossier / — · Montarville

Where

The challenger

QLPQuebec Liberal Party

Lucie Gagnon

Montarville

16.7points behind the leader

CAQCoalition avenir Québec

INCUMBENT

Nathalie RoyMontarville

41.1 %

Nathalie RoyCoalition avenir Québec · IncumbentCAQ since 2012

The climb · 2018

CAQNathalie Roy

QLPLucie Gagnon

PQDaniel Michelin

QSMarie-Christine Veilleux

PCQEvans Henry

CQIsadora Lamouche

PVQJeanne Dufour

Gap at the last election16.7 points

Retrospective reconstruction. The 2017 map was used in 2018 and 2022. H2 (2014) excluded: map change not reviewed. No biography inferred.

Nomination status: Confirmed historical candidacy

A gap measured at the last election, not a prediction.

Reason : Below ranking threshold

The arithmetic behind the assignment

H1 · 2018 · Montarville

Party at the previous election : 24.4 %

Strongest opponent at that election : 41.1 %

42,252 valid votes · Verified comparable territory

Inspect all votes and the denominator

Nathalie Roy · CAQ17,368 votes
Ludovic Grisé Farand · QLP10,298 votes
Daniel Michelin · PQ6,820 votes
Caroline Charette · QS6,716 votes
Lise Roy · NPDQ836 votes
Jean Dury · BP214 votes

Sum of candidate votes = 42,252 / 42,252 valid votes

The calculation

41.1 % − 24.4 % = 16.7 points

Calculated using unrounded values; displayed to one decimal.

The person behind the assignment

Why run here?

No interview published.

Retrospective reconstruction

Outcome

Sources and supporting evidence (4)

Élections Québec ↗Official file retained with SHA-256 checksum and schema validation.September 6, 2026 · SHA-256 66a4410f46b2c664
Élections Québec ↗Official 2022 candidacies; incumbent indicator used for pre-election context.September 6, 2026 · SHA-256 488057227cc47565
Élections Québec ↗Official map history: twelve territories retained in 2026; 2017 map used in 2018 and 2022.September 6, 2026 · SHA-256 6b23cd706bd2ca87
Élections Québec ↗Official file retained with SHA-256 checksum and schema validation.September 6, 2026 · SHA-256 ff268ada6bee3c51

Another dossier awaits.

No.The challengerThe incumbent / opponentGap at the last electionSave this dossier

Louis-Charles Fortier

PCQConservative Party of Quebec

Jacques-Cartier

The incumbent / opponentGregory KelleyQuebec Liberal Party

69.2 pts

Chantal Beauregard

PQParti Québécois

Jacques-Cartier

The incumbent / opponentGregory KelleyQuebec Liberal Party

69.0 pts