QLPQuebec Liberal Party
Brigitte GarceauRobert-Baldwin
57.8 %
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POTEAUThe uneven side of elections.
Quebec 2026General election · Monday, October 5
Somebody has to run.
Every party has to run someone in all 125 ridings, including the ones it cannot win. We ranked those candidacies by the size of the gap, then went looking for the people behind the names.
68 % of the vote30 %32 %THE POTEAUX*Under a third of the vote between them
Every party runs a candidate in all 125 ridings.
In many ridings it is settled in advance: the incumbent took 68 % of the vote and everyone else split the rest.
The ones who run anyway at the bottom of the hill are called poteaux*. POTEAU ranks them by the climb ahead and goes to find out who they are.*Quebec slang for a candidate running where the party cannot win.
But if the incumbent’s vote splits, a poteau can win. Émilise Lessard-Therrien did it in 2018 with 32 % of the vote.
Featured dossier / Robert-Baldwin
WhereRiding 267 · MontréalRobert-BaldwinPart of Montréal · Dollard-des-Ormeaux
The climb · 2022
Brigitte GarceauQuebec Liberal Party · IncumbentQLP since at least 197057.8 % at the last election
The challengers
PCQConservative Party of Quebec
Axel LelloucheRobert-Baldwin
41.7points behind the leader
CAQCoalition avenir Québec
Sophie LerouxRobert-Baldwin
48.0points behind the leader
QSQuébec solidaire
Alexandra LacosteRobert-Baldwin
52.7points behind the leader
PQParti Québécois
Maurice DaudeRobert-Baldwin
55.2points behind the leader
The climb · 2022
Robert-Baldwin →QLP57.8 %Brigitte Garceau
PCQ16.0 %Axel Lellouche
CAQ9.8 %Sophie Leroux
QS5.0 %Alexandra Lacoste
PQ2.6 %Maurice Daude
Quebec 2026 · Official candidacies
All ridings →The steepest hills
01 2 other party candidates →QLP
Gregory Kelley62.6 %Gregory KelleyQuebec Liberal Party · IncumbentQLP since 199462.6 % at the last electionThe challengersPCQ51.3points behind the leaderCAQ53.1points behind the leader02 1 other party candidate →CAQ
Yanick Baillargeon56.2 %Yanick BaillargeonCoalition avenir Québec · Defends the seatAt dissolution : Nancy GuillemetteQLP 2018 · CAQ 202256.2 % at the last electionThe challengersPQ35.7points behind the leaderPCQ44.8points behind the leaderQLP51.6points behind the leader03 1 other party candidate →QS
Alexandre Boulerice59.4 %Alexandre BoulericeQuébec solidaire · Defends the seatAt dissolution : Gabriel Nadeau-DuboisQS since 201259.4 % at the last electionThe challengersPQ45.8points behind the leaderCAQ47.1points behind the leaderQLP51.0points behind the leader04 2 other party candidates →CAQ
Marie-Eve Myrand55.9 %Marie-Eve MyrandCoalition avenir Québec · Defends the seatAt dissolution : Sonia LeBelCAQ since 201855.9 % at the last electionThe challengersPCQ38.3points behind the leaderPQ43.9points behind the leaderQLP50.8points behind the leader05 1 other party candidate →CAQ
Yannick Gagnon59.4 %Yannick GagnonCoalition avenir Québec · IncumbentPQ 2018 · CAQ 202259.4 % at the last electionThe challengersPQ40.1points behind the leaderQS50.3points behind the leader06 1 other party candidate →PQ
Pascal Bérubé67.4 %Pascal BérubéParti Québécois · IncumbentPQ since 201267.4 % at the last electionThe challengersCAQ50.1points behind the leader07 1 other party candidate →QLPSEAT TO DEFEND?No nomination filedAt dissolution: Filomena Rotiroti53.9 %No nomination filedQuebec Liberal Party · Seat to defendAt dissolution : Filomena RotirotiQLP since 200353.9 % at the last electionFiling closes September 17 at 2 p.m.The challengersCAQ37.3points behind the leaderPQ49.7points behind the leader08 2 other party candidates →CAQ
Simon Allaire53.5 %Simon AllaireCoalition avenir Québec · IncumbentCAQ since 201853.5 % at the last electionThe challengersPCQ37.4points behind the leaderQLP48.4points behind the leader
All ridings →The impossible assignments : by candidate →Map →
Queen of the poteaux
In 2018 Émilise Lessard-Therrien was 27. Four years earlier Québec solidaire had taken 11.6% in Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue and the Liberals 38%. She won with 32.1% because the Liberal vote split.
Who takes her crown on October 5?
Nobody has to match the incumbent’s score. It is enough that their voters scatter across several parties.
The 244 poteaux of 2022 →2018 results, National Assembly27years
11.6%QS in 2014
32.1%QS in 2018
Editor’s note
What the number measures
The gap, in points, is the distance between the candidate’s party and the party that finished first in the riding at the last election. It says nothing about the person’s effort or chances. It can also close from the top: if the leader’s vote splits, it takes fewer votes to win.
About →In their own words
Why run?
We ask every candidate. Their answers, when they come, run as written.
In their own words →